A Pre-Buttal to President Trump’s ‘State of the Union’ Address
By Randy Abraham
(Jumping onto the stage and mustering up my best Kanye West impression)
“I’mma let you finish, Stacey Abrams and Xavier Becerra, but first, here is my assessment of the State of the Union under the Trump administration.”
Job creation and economic growth is slowing — the Federal Reserve Board recently confirmed that assessment by declining to raise interest rates — — reversing a post-crisis trend to normalize interest rates that began in December 2015 — citing disappointing quarterly corporate reports, declining construction spending, collapsing consumer spending in December, and the ongoing impact of the trade war;
The stock market is experiencing turbulence and since 2018 has reversed most of 2017’s gains;
The annual deficit is rising to alarming and possibly unsustainable levels, an anomaly under periods of low unemployment and modest growth;
Farmers are filing for bankruptcy at a record pace and letting their crops rot in the field because of a trade war and tariffs that have reduced opportunities in overseas markets, and a misguided immigration policy that has decimated the migrant farm workforce;
Automakers are closing plants and cutting back on thousands of jobs.
Thousands of children of refugees seeking asylum are being held hostage in detention camps, creating a humanitarian crisis because of President Donald J. Trump’s insistence on a southern border wall, and government officials have said that it might not be possible to reunite them with their families because adequate steps were not taken beforehand to match them with their parents — some of whom are being detained elsewhere or have already been deported.
Meanwhile some of Trump’s advisors and Republican Senators are desperately trying to warn the President not to declare a national emergency in an effort to sidestep Congress for border wall funding, as it could trigger a Constitutional crisis.
And overseas, our allies are facing steep and punishing tariffs as part of an American-initiated trade war. Ukraine is under siege from the Russians, and the Middle East is set for another eruption over news of an imminent U.S. pullout from Syria, drastic cuts in U.S. aid to Palestinians, and our intriguing with Saudi Arabia and the major Gulf states against Iran.
North Korea just exposed Trump’s feckless pursuit of a “denuclearization summit” as a complete pipedream and non-starter when they said they would only denuclearize after a unilateral U.S. withdrawal of forces from Japan and South Korea, which would destabilize the entire region.
And similarly potentially dire and destabilizing consequences await as the result of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal: In an attempt to avoid U.S.-imposed penalties on nations who still desire to uphold this historic nuclear reduction agreement and continue to trade with Iran, the European Union is developing a workaround that would sidestep U.S.-based banks.
This development could potentially serve as the basis for decoupling the U.S. dollar — the world’s reserve currency and the basis for much of the business conducted globally — from international trade and further isolate the U.S. diplomatically, monetarily, and economically.
A similar prospect may result from the recent imposition of economic sanctions on Venezuela.
Given the ambivalence and even outright contempt that Trump has shown to NATO and our European allies — and to our existing alliances in general — it’s not hyperbole to state that the world’s leaders are now revaluating and re-examining their relationship to the U.S.
There were reports that at last year’s NATO summit, Trump greeted German Chancellor Angela Merkel with the derisive comment, “You owe me a trillion dollars,” in a ludicrous, grotesque, and divisive mischaracterization of Germany’s, and other NATO members’, contributions to this successful and historic trans-Atlantic defense alliance.
That same contempt was also evident when Trump, pushing to get to a front-and-center spot for a photo opportunity, shoved aside the president of Montenegro, whose country had only recently become a NATO member — over Russia’s vehement objections.
Trump also has recently announced his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty arms reduction agreement negotiated by President Ronald W. Reagan, raising the chilling specter of Europe, once again, becoming the arena and staging ground for a new lethal arms race between the U.S. and Russia.
Trump also downgraded the diplomatic status of the European Union’s delegation to the U. S. last year without warning Brussels of the decision, and has withdrawn the U.S. from membership in the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and the United Nations Human Rights Council.
Trump also downgraded the status of the U.S.’s Jerusalem consulate, its main diplomatic mission to the Palestinians, by placing it under the authority of the U.S. Embassy to Israel, which means that the Jerusalem consulate will no longer have a separate channel to Washington to report on Palestinian affairs and will no longer be run by a consul general with authorities equivalent to those of an ambassador.
There were reports that he even discussed withdrawing from NATO.
And don’t think that these moves have gone unnoticed:
French President Emmanuel Macron recently called for an all-European defense alliance to counter Russia, China, and — unbelievably, given our long-standing and historic friendship — the U.S.
And German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated that Europe might no longer be able to rely on the U.S. to defend it in a time of crisis.
And on the economic front, an international trade agreement recently went into effect between the European Union and Japan, creating potentially the world’s largest trading bloc. Last year the EU reached a similar agreement for an international trade agreement with Canada.
In addition, the European Parliament recently gave its consent to an EU-Singapore free trade and investment agreement — the first trade and investment agreements concluded between the EU and a member state of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) — and the bill will now go to the parliaments of the individual EU member nations for ratification.
The U.S. is not a party to either of these deals, as Trump is averse to multi-lateral agreements, and so will not benefit from those favorable trade terms.
And in the Asia-Pacific region all of our previous commitments to those countries — economic as well as military — are now in doubt, and some adversaries in the region are becoming emboldened, more adventurous, and eager to exploit those doubts, now that we have strategically ceded ground:
Trump, in the opening days of his presidency, precipitously withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an international trade agreement among, initially, 12 nations situated in the Asia-Pacific Rim — the world’s fastest-growing region — that was negotiated by the Obama administration.
Canada, Mexico, Japan, Singapore, and Australia are among the members of the TPP, which also includes a renegotiation of NAFTA.
The TPP as envisioned comprised 40 percent of the world’s economy and was designed to:
· Boost exports and reduce tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers among member nations;
· Counter China’s rising influence in the Asia-Pacific region;
· Level the playing field for American workers and exporters by reducing the financial incentives to move American jobs and factories overseas to low-wage countries with lax or non-existing labor, human rights and environmental regulations;
• Persuade protectionist economies to open up their agricultural, manufacturing, automotive, professional services, and financial sectors to foreign competition in order to provide American workers and exporters a level playing field;
• Get Canada and Mexico to renegotiate NAFTA in exchange for increased access to the Asia-Pacific Rim, the fastest-growing region in the world;
• Extend favorable trade conditions upon member countries that exhibit enforceable, verifiable labor and human rights standards and environmental protections — a first among international trade agreements, and meant to liberalize these countries and “globalize” human and labor rights and environmental protections by outlawing human trafficking, cracking down on forced and child labor and other human rights violations, raising environmental and labor standards; allowing labor unions, a guaranteed minimum wage, and a free, open and unrestricted Internet — by linking expanded economic and strategic opportunities with the U.S., the world’s largest economy, with adherence to and support of the Western values that the U.S. has historically upheld; and
· Strengthen strategic relations with our military and economic partners.
Given the above mentioned features, much of the world saw the TPP as a work of masterful diplomacy that would strengthen the U.S. position and standing in the region — both economically as well as strategically — and counter authoritarian China’s hegemonic rise.
And it was the strategic value of TPP in strengthening our ties with military allies and trading partners that was noted by former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and former Defense Secretary James Mattis, who both supported, to no avail, the initiative.
Because instead of enacting TPP and pocketing those gains, Trump withdrew from it over the objections of his advisors and without holding any hearings.
And don’t think that move has gone unnoticed.
On December 30, a portion of the TPP tariff reductions went into effect in six of the 11 remaining TPP signatory countries, and in this and subsequent years U.S. farmers are increasingly going to be at an undeniable competitive disadvantage with foreign competitors because of our non-membership in TPP.
Similar tariff reductions for other industries are scheduled to go into effect at various timetables.
Trump also cut off and abandoned negotiations initiated by the Obama administration for the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a proposed international trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, soon after he was inaugurated.
And Trump’s attempt to strike a trade agreement with China is similarly untenable and doomed to failure because he has no agenda, no coherent strategy, no leverage, and no momentum: some of our key allies, who might otherwise be expected to lend their support to us — and prevail upon China to address their violations of agreements they made as a party to the World Trade Organization, such as stealing intellectual property and industrial secrets, using their state-subsidized industries to dump steel under cost onto world markets and manipulating their currency to achieve a competitive price advantage for their exports — are currently laboring under U.S.-imposed tariffs.
And despite imposing punishing tariffs as part of Trump’s effort to “rectify” what he sees as a trade imbalance with China and other countries, the U.S. trade deficit continues to rise, primarily because of a collapse in U.S. exports.
And so now here we are, facing a restive and anxious set of allies around the world who are now as uncertain of our commitments to them as we now are of our own place in the world — and in an international order which we ourselves largely created and have led for over 70 years.
And in this rapidly changing state of affairs the world is being forced to call into question our previous assumptions and position of moral authority, status, and fitness for leadership.
Yes, European as well as Asian leaders have grave concerns about Trump’s intentions, as do many Americans, given the continued exodus of U.S. national security, military, and diplomatic personnel, and all of the treaties and agreements Trump has abandoned.
And because of Trump’s moves to upend and withdraw from existing agreements and alliances, and because of the ambivalence he has displayed toward military and trade partners, the world is now undergoing a realignment that threatens to leave the U.S. increasingly isolated diplomatically, economically, culturally, and militarily.
In just two years under Trump, the U.S. has gone from the recognized, respected, and undisputed Leader of the Free World to something akin to rogue superpower status.
And in the event of a miscalculation or ill-conceived policy that leads to a general economic reversal or collapse, a widespread outbreak of war, pandemic or humanitarian crisis, the U.S. could find itself a pariah nation.
And that, my fellow Americans, would be a disastrous State for our Union.
God bless you, and God help these United States of America.
